A new study finds that there are 20 million acres of suitable habitat for jaguars in Arizona and New Mexico/Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

A wild cat, by size the third largest feline in the world and the largest in Western Hemisphere, theoretically could range across 20 million acres in Arizona and New Mexico, according to a new study spurred by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's 2019 study of critical habitat for jaguars.

"That's not everything, that's just the best of it," Bryan Bird, director of Defender of Wildlife's Southwest program, said Wednesday during a phone call from his Santa Fe, New Mexico, office. "We decided to clip it off and really look at what was the very best jaguar habitat from all the variables we threw in the model. It could have been a lot bigger."

The habitat analysis, published Tuesday in Oryx, The International Journal of Conservation, was spurred by the Wildlife Service's 2019 report on critical habitat for the big cat, which can reach 6 feet in length. But that analysis stopped at Interstate 10 that runs east and west across New Mexico and Arizona. That boundary, the researchers determined, placed an artificial limit on the historical range of the jaguar.

"This conclusion is at odds with several other habitat studies covering areas north of Interstate 10. Numerous photographs, physical remains, and accounts of jaguars from the late 19th century to the 1960s demonstrate that the species formerly occurred north of the current highway (the highway dates from 1956)," they wrote. "Ironically some of these historical jaguar records came from hunters working for the U.S. Bureau of Biological Survey and its successor organizations, as part of predator control efforts. Some of these government hunters placed jaguar skulls and skins in the U.S. National Museum. Other accounts come from ranchers, trappers, hunters and tourists, including of jaguars killed near the Grand Canyon. These observations are cited in a long series of summary papers and books, published since the 1920s, and now available online."

Our focal question was: Do scientific models and assessments of potential habitat for the jaguar Panthera onca in Arizona and New Mexico indicate suitability in areas north of Interstate-10? If so, which areas? To answer this question, we developed a review protocol based on inclusion criteria. Studies to be reviewed must have: (1) examined at least some areas that fall within the modern boundaries of the States of Arizona and/or New Mexico, in the USA (spatial criteria), (2) employed objective habitat criteria in a model or assessment based on documented aspects of jaguar ecology (scientific criteria), and (3) been documented thoroughly enough that the methods and results can be peer-reviewed (reviewable criteria). 

Central Arizona/New Mexico Recovery Area. Map courtesy of Sanderson et al. (2021) published in Conservation Science and Practice.

Across their range in the United States, jaguars are listed as an endangered species, according to the Center for Biological Diversity, which noted Wednesday that just seven male jaguars have been photographed in the mountains south of Interstate 10 during the past 20 years. If the cats could return, they wouldn't starve.

“It should come as no surprise that the forested Mogollon Plateau, which teems with deer, elk and javelina, now has scientific recognition as good jaguar habitat,” said Michael Robinson of the Center for Biological Diversity. “This region was the last stand for breeding jaguars after their elimination elsewhere in the U.S., and these beautiful cats could thrive here again.”

Authoring the new study were researchers from the Wildlife Conservation Society, Defenders of Wildlife, Center for Biological Diversity, Wildlands Network, Pace University, U.S. Geological Survey, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Bird’s Eye View, IUCN and Bordercats Working Group.

"(Jaguars) once had a spectacular range in the United States," Bird said, noting that they once roamed from California to Louisiana and perhaps as far north as Colorado. "They got hunted and controlled to extirpation in the U.S. So yeah, 20 million acres, or 32,000 square miles, is pretty much in what we call the Central Arizona/New Mexico mountains (recovery area)."

National park units that fall within, or possibly touch that area, include Chiricahua National Monument, Fort Bowie National Historic Site, Coronado National Memorial, Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument, and Saguaro National Park.

Much of the 20 million acres is public land. The federal government manages 68 percent of the area, said Bird, tribal sovereign nations overesee 13 percent, and state agencies are in charge of 8 percent. Private lands represent just 11 percent of the total.

"Of the federal agencies, the U.S. Forest Service manages the greatest area, with eight different national forests covering more than 3,000 square kilometers each," he said. "The Bureau of Land Management and National Park Service are also important land managers. The two largest American Indian sovereign nations are the White Mountain Apache (6,790 square kilometers) and the San Carlos Apache (3,294 square kilometers)."

Jaguar_FlickrCommons_EricKilby_BY-SA.jpg

With those land patterns, any attempt to restore jaguars into that habitat would require stakeholder buy-in, said Bird. "Right now, this is the beginning of a conversation. It's going to have a long way to go from here."

According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, the Western Hemisphere population of panthers has been in decline. The great populations are found in the tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America. If jaguars in Mexico, where Bird said there are roughly 4,000 individuals, could find their way north into the Southwest, they'd have to be able to handle the warmer, drier climate. But the Defenders staffer doesn't think that's a problem.

"Being on the edge of the range, there could be unique genetics in this population that we want to protect because they are uniquely adapted to the drier desert environment," he said. "I think this is one of the challenges. When most people think about a jaguar, or any spotted cat, they think jungle. They think Brazil, or the Amazon. Most people would be really surprised to find out that they once were an occupant in the desert Southwest. These animals may have some unique genetics that are going to be particularly important to preserve as we start to feel the effects of climate change and warmer and drier climates. Maybe these animals will have important genetics that will help them adapt to that."

Bird said the last time one of the cats was captured by a camera was in January, near Fort Bowie National Historic Site.

Conservationists hope this study will encourage the Fish and Wildlife Service to take another look at critical habitat for jaguars in the Southwest and revise its earlier estimate. However, even with such an expanded range, getting from Mexico into the U.S. Southwest would not be easy.

"The border wall has created some challenges. It certainly has made it harder for any jaguar to make that trip (from Mexico), because now it has to find the very small holes that are few and far between," said Bird, adding, though, that "(T)his is a long way from actually seeing breeding jaguars in the United States right now" because of all the work that would need to be accomplished for that to become a possibility.

Still, it's an exciting possibility.

“Jaguar recovery in the northern extreme of its range is of interest to both the U.S. and Mexico, and having this analysis — which clears previous misconceptions about available habitat — is indispensable to make informed decisions for international efforts,” said Juan Carlos Bravo, Wildlands Network’s Mexico and Borderlands program director.