Cuts to the National Weather Service May Have Serious Impacts On National Parks

Hypothetical #1: It’s a warm summer afternoon in the desert and you’re hiking through a slot canyon. All around you, sandstone walls bend and twist, weathered from thousands of years of water, wind, and sun. Earlier, the bluebird sky seemed to signal a perfect hiking day. But now, you hear the rumbles of thunder and a strange, rushing sound. You head back to the trailhead as quickly as possible, barely escaping the canyon before a flash flood surges through it.

Hypothetical #2: You’re on a lush mountain trail in the Southeast. It’s cloudy and raining, but you are prepared with a poncho and waterproof hiking boots. The trees thin out as you climb upwards, until you find yourself exposed on a rocky summit. Without warning, a lightning bolt hits a tree only yards away, so close your hair stands on end. As the sudden storm intensifies, you head downhill as fast as you possibly can.

Being caught in a national park in unexpected weather can mean the difference between an enjoyable outing and one that is dangerous or deadly. The National Park Service (NPS) relies heavily on accurate weather forecasts to help visitors plan their trips and prepare for various scenarios. Weather data also allows park personnel to prepare for major events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, wind or dust storms, lightning, and more.

The devastation Hurricane Helene inflicted on the Blue Ridge Parkway/NPS file

However, recent Trump administration firings at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS), a major NOAA function, have raised concerns about impacts to people, places, and infrastructure. Beginning in late February, more than 1,000 NOAA employees were fired or took the “fork in the road” resignation offer, and although some of those fired were reinstated in March, additional cuts are expected soon, with reports of a total reduction goal of about 20 percent of the workforce.

“The consequences to the American people [of such cuts] will be large and wide-ranging, including increased vulnerability to hazardous weather,” stated the American Meteorological Society in a statement released in March.

The NWS maintains more than 120 offices around the country, which perform important forecasting functions for both the general public and public and private sector partners, including NPS, the U.S. Forest Service, state governments, and tribes. A reported 96 percent of Americans rely on NOAA/NWS forecasting data on a regular basis.

“We do 24/7 forecasting, 365 days a year, rotating shift work, days and evenings, and we’re constantly on,” says a NWS meteorologist in the West who asked to not be identified given the sensitivity of the current situation. “In that regard, we’re forecasting the weather for everyone and anyone. We’re forecasting for the public and our partners [including NPS] that we have close relationships with and that are in need of information.”

Among those fired include researchers who were working on improving hurricane forecasts, with a particular focus on the phenomenon of rapid intensification, which is usually defined as an increase in a cyclone’s maximum sustained winds of at least 30 knots (35 mph) over a 24-hour period. Rapid intensification is notoriously hard to predict and is often responsible for significant damage. Last fall’s Hurricane Helene, for example, was a relatively weak tropical storm until shortly before it made landfall in Florida and left an unprecedented path of destruction in the Southeast as a Category 4 storm. Among the areas in the line of devastation were the Blue Ridge Parkway in North Carolina, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, and the Appalachian National Scenic Trail. 

Summer storm in Canyonlands National Park/NPS file

NOAA also has reduced the number of offices releasing weather balloons, which carry instruments known as radiosondes that gather data on wind speed, air pressure, humidity and other data points. 

U.S. Rep. Jared Huffman, D-California, on Friday condemned plans by the Trump administration to "dismantle" the weather service.

"Three reckless billionaires — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump, and DOGE vandal Elon Musk — are dismantling one of our government’s most important public functions, the National Weather Service," said Huffman, the ranking member on the House Natural Resources Committee. "The data management contracts they are cancelling include critical weather and climate data, geographic information, and extensive modeling infrastructure that enables end users to utilize these data.

"... those who depend on NOAA weather tools include the Department of Defense, first responders, and local businesses across the country," said the Democrat. "Trump and his oligarchs are clearing the way for their corporate mega-polluter cronies by erasing science and scientists, pushing America into the dark ages. They are delivering another Project 2025 promise but betraying the American people by making us less safe and shredding our global scientific leadership. Secretary Lutnick should be working to maintain and expand NOAA’s lifesaving data and services, instead of burning this critical agency to the ground. Lutnick must reverse course on NOAA or resign and go back to Wall Street." 

With less data, computer weather modeling and forecasting are less accurate, which means that people will have less information and time to react to severe weather events. “If you have less data upstream, it will impact the forecast downstream,” the NWS meteorologist says.

The administration’s reductions come just as severe weather events appear to be on the rise, and many areas are still recovering from last year’s damaging hurricane season. Recently, the NWS characterized 2024’s severe weather as “near historic,” with the second-highest number of tornadoes since record-keeping began 75 years ago (2011 was the highest). Already, meteorologists have predicted that 2025 will be an above-average year for hurricanes.

Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software office, for example, estimates that nine hurricanes will form in the coming season, with four predicted to be category 3, 4, or 5—the most severe—on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Other forecasters have released similar predictions.

Not all weather entities appear as concerned about the downstream impacts of NOAA cuts, however. In a prepared statement, AccuWeather CEO Steven R. Smith said, “We have no indication at this time that the changes at NOAA will impact the accuracy of AccuWeather’s forecasts and warnings. We remain committed to providing the highest levels of service to the public, the media, and our clients. We will continue to monitor and assess the situation.”

But like many observers, including those headed out to the national parks this year, the NWS meteorologist remains highly concerned about the loss of research expertise, data collection, and the ability to make accurate weather forecasts.

“Weather impacts everybody,” the meteorologist says. “It takes a lot of coordination to keep people safe.”