Yellowstone's northern elk herd appears to be growing in numbers/NPS, Neal Herbert file photo

Elk numbers in Yellowstone National Park's northern herd are up substantially, a development that could be attributed to an undercount for 2017, fewer wolves in the park to prey on elk, or a combination of the two.

The annual tally conducted by the Northern Yellowstone Cooperative Wildlife Working Group produced a count of 7,579 elk inside Yellowstone, and another 5,741 north fo the park. The survey, conducted January 15-16 using two airplanes, was performed by staff from the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks and the National Park Service. 

The 2018 count was 42 percent higher than the 2017 survey results of 5,349 elk, and 94 percent higher than the lowest count of 3,915 elk in 2013. This year’s count of 7,579 was the highest since 9,545 elk were counted in 2005. The long-term average of observed elk numbers since surveys began in 1976 is 10,634 elk, with a peak high count of 19,045 elk in 1994.

Back in 2010, the count of 4,635 elk in Yellowstone's herd sparked outcries that the park's wolf recovery program was to blame for the 24 percent decline from a year earlier. At the time, Doug Smith, Yellowstone's wolf project leader, told the Traveler a number of factors led him to question "how good this count is."

Heavy snows in November and December could have pushed many elk out of the park, he said, and the aerial tally, which normally has an error rate anywhere from 10 percent to 50 percent, could have been significantly off.

Elk are among the iconic animals that Yellowstone tourists expect to see during vacations to the park. The northern herd -- one of the park's seven elk herds -- is particularly photogenic, with small bands milling around park headquarters at Mammoth Hot Springs and larger numbers readily seen in the rolling grasslands that rim the park road that winds from Mammoth Hot Springs to Cooke City just beyond the park's northeastern entrance.

When Yellowstone officials ceased artificially capping the herd at roughly 3,000-4,000 animals back in 1967, there was a population explosion that saw the northern herd expand to nearly 20,000 animals.

In 2010, Yellowstone's wolf population numbered stood at just under 100 animals, well down from its high point of roughly 170 in 2003. In December of 2016, the population was at least 108, according to the park's website.

Moving forward with the latest elk survey, the Working Group will continue to monitor trends of the northern Yellowstone elk population and evaluate the relative contribution of various components of mortality, including predation, environmental factors, and hunting.

The Working Group was formed in 1974 to cooperatively preserve and protect the long-term integrity of the northern Yellowstone winter range for wildlife species by increasing our scientific knowledge of the species and their habitats, promoting prudent land management activities, and encouraging an interagency approach to answering questions and solving problems.